Ezekiel 30:20-26: How Does This Prophecy Line Up With History?
“And it came to pass in the eleventh year, in the first month, in the seventh day of the month, that the word of the Lord came unto me, saying, Son of man, I have broken the arm of Pharaoh king of Egypt; and, lo, it shall not be bound up to be healed, to put a roller to bind it, to make it strong to hold the sword. Therefore thus saith the Lord God; Behold, I am against Pharaoh king of Egypt, and will break his arms, the strong, and that which was broken; and I will cause the sword to fall out of his hand. And I will scatter the Egyptians among the nations, and will disperse them through the countries. And I will strengthen the arms of the king of Babylon, and put my sword in his hand: but I will break Pharaoh’s arms, and he shall groan before him with the groanings of a deadly wounded man. But I will strengthen the arms of the king of Babylon, and the arms of Pharaoh shall fall down; and they shall know that I am the Lord, when I shall put my sword into the hand of the king of Babylon, and he shall stretch it out upon the land of Egypt. And I will scatter the Egyptians among the nations, and disperse them among the countries; and they shall know that I am the Lord.”
Ezekiel 30:20-26 KJV
Ezekiel chapter 30 is full of remarkable prophecies against Egypt. Yet, these prophecies are as fascinating as they are difficult to understand. The more I read these prophecies, the more I view them as partially historical and partially futuristic. For example, verses 1-9 of chapter 30 describe an event that seems to only fit a future fulfillment despite many commentators subscribing these events to an occurrence in the past which requires much manipulation of the Scripture. Please see my articles “Ezekiel 30: Nebuchadnezzar and Egypt – Did Ezekiel Get It Wrong?” And “Ezekiel 29: ‘Tower of Syene’: A Modern Day Prophecy Fulfillment”. A quick read of these two posts will reveal the trouble one encounters when attempting to understand Ezekiel’s prophecies against Egypt in a purely historical way.
Now, as I continue my study into Ezekiel 30, I yet again encounter a passage that just doesn’t fit extremely well into the historical narrative as we know it. That said, just because our history books doesn’t include events, doesn’t mean those events didn’t occur. But, the events listed in the passage I am focusing on in this post are pretty major and one would think that there would be some historical documentation on them. The majority of these prophecies speak to the destruction of Egypt by Babylon. The issue is that Babylon didn’t really conquer Egypt. Babylon invaded Egypt and certainly put Egypt down a notch, but Egypt was not conquered again until the Persian empire arose.
So, we now arrive at a dilemma. The Bible is not wrong. Ezekiel’s prophecies cannot be incorrect. But, how are we supposed to grapple with this apparent contradiction? How can these prophecies be true?
To understand the issue at hand, we need to break apart the prophecy of Ezekiel 30:20-26 into its major events. In typical Biblical fashion, the events are not presented in precise language like we are used to in our current culture, but rather is presented symbolically. This distinction, of course, leads to some of the struggle in identifying exactly what historical events are spoken of here.
In this passage, God uses the picture of Pharaoh holding a sword with flexed arms to portray the events against Egypt. So, here are the events listed out:
1. God broke one of Pharaoh’s arms – it will not be healed and can no longer hold a sword (verse 21).
2. God will break both of Pharaoh’s arms – the one that was broken before and the other arm and the sword will fall to the ground (verse 22, 24 – 25).
3. God will scatter the Egyptian people among the nations (verse 23, 26).
4. The king of Babylon will be strengthened and will hold the sword which he will “stretch” over the land of Egypt (verse 24-25).
Event #1: God broke one of Pharaoh’s arms.
First, I want to point out the verb tense differences between the events (I placed the verbs in bold type). All of the events are listed as future events with the exception of the first one: God broke one of Pharaoh’s arms. This indicates that the first event has already happened at the time of this prophecy.
Fortunately, Ezekiel provides a very specific date for this prophecy which is the spring of 587 BC. This date can be used to determine what historical event must be represented by the 1st broken arm of Pharaoh.
Here is a quick timeline of Babylon, Judah, and Egyptian relations for this time period. As you can see, Egypt and Babylon are engaged in a struggle for control over the land around and including Judah.
Date Description
671 BC Assyria conquers Egypt and Egypt becomes a vassal state of Assyria and then later an independent ally.
612 BC Nineveh falls to Babylon essentially ending the Assyrian Empire and establishing the Babylonian Empire.
Assyria moved her capital to Harran.
610 – 609 BC The Egyptian army (led by Necho II, a former Assyrian vassal state) marches to Harran to assist the Assyrian army in their fight against Babylon.
609 BC Battle of Megiddo: King Josiah of Judah refused to let Egypt pass through Judah to march to Harran leading to a battle at Megiddo. Josiah is killed and Judah becomes a vassal state of Egypt. Egypt continues to Harran. Upon his return from the Battle of Harran, Pharaoh Necho II removes king Jehoahaz (Josiah’s son) from the throne and installs Jehoiakim (Jehoahaz’s brother) as king and required tribute from Judah.
609 BC After a year long siege, the city of Harran fell to Babylon fully destroying the Assyrian Empire. The remnant of the Assyrian army joins forces with Egyptians at Carchemish.
605 BC Battle of Carchemish: The remnant of the Assyrian army and Egypt attempt to retake Harran and meet the Babylon army at Carchemish. Babylon is victorious and Assyria as a nation disappeared. Egypt returns in defeat no longer a major influence in the region.
605 BC Babylon’s first siege against Jerusalem: Babylon continues its campaign through the region and comes to Judah, a vassal state of Egypt. Daniel and other captives are taken to Babylon.
King Jehoiakim of Judah changes allegiance from Egypt to Babylon and promises to pay tribute to Nebuchadnezzar of Babylon. But, he eventually rebels against doing so prompting Nebuchadnezzar’s return in 597 BC.
601 BC Nebuchadnezzar of Babylon unsuccessfully attempts to invade Egypt.
597 BC Babylon’s second siege against Jerusalem: Jehoiakim refused to pay tribute to Babylon. He dies in 597 BC and Jehoiachin, his son rules for 3 months. Babylon invades Jerusalem to quell the rebellion and Jehoiachin is taken prisoner and the temple treasures as well as many nobles and craftsmen (i.e. Ezekiel) are taken back to Babylon. Nebuchadnezzar of Babylon places Zedekiah (Jehoiachin’s uncle) as a vassal king of Judah. However, despite the prophecies of Jeremiah and Ezekiel telling Zedekiah to submit to Babylon, Zedekiah ends ups allying with Egypt and rebelling against Nebuchadnezzar of Babylon.
588 BC Pharaoh Hophra (Apries) of Egypt dispatches a force to Jerusalem during the siege of Jerusalem by Babylon to protect Jerusalem, but the Egyptian force withdrew without a fight.
586 BC After the final 3 year siege against Jerusalem: Nebuchadnezzar of Babylon destroys Jerusalem and takes most of the people captive to Babylon. The poorest people are left behind to care for the land.
570 BC Pharaoh Hophra (Apries) is ousted by his former general, Amasis, who crowned himself Pharaoh of Egypt (likely due to his declining popularity as a result of his failure in 588 BC). Hophra runs to Babylon.
568 BC According to the ancient historian, Josephus, Nebuchadnezzar may have invaded Egypt at this time, but not much is known about this invasion.
567 BC Hophra returns to Egypt with a Babylonian force to reclaim the throne, but he is defeated. It is believed that Amasis treated Hophra well but the people strangled him (which would fit with Jeremiah’s prophecy in Jeremiah 44:30).
[Note: could this be the battle that Josephus describes as occurring in 568 BC?]
547 BC Egypt forms an alliance with Babylon against Persia.
539 BC Persia overthrows Babylon.
538 BC The first wave of Jewish Exiles return to Jerusalem.
So, this timeline reveals that 587 BC was just before the end of the 3rd and final siege of Jerusalem. There are two important events pertaining to Egypt that occur just before 587 BC. In 605 BC, the Egyptians suffer a stunning defeat at the hands of Babylon at the Battle of Carchemish. Also, in 588 BC (only 1 year prior to this prophecy), Egypt is humiliated again by Babylon when Egypt attempts to protect Jerusalem during Babylon’s siege. It is easy to see how both of these events (individually and/or combined) changed Egypt from a feared empire to a cowering state. In fact, Egypt never regains her strength (as verse 21 tells us, “…it shall not be bound up to be healed…”). With this timeline in mind, it is very likely that the first event in this passage must be referring to either the 605 BC Battle of Carchemish or the 587 BC fight to protect Jerusalem or both.
Event #2: God will break both Pharaoh’s broken arm and good arm.
Unlike the first event, the next event is spoken of in future tense as to the time of the prophecy which was in 587 BC. God’s next move will be to break both arms: the good arm and the one broken before. This event will result in Egypt dropping the sword. This event is harder to nail down exactly.
I believe that the most likely historical incident tied to event #2 would be 570 – 567 BC. The current Pharaoh was Pharaoh Hophra (also known as Apries). Due to his failure to protect Jerusalem in 588 BC as well as unrest among his army, Pharaoh Hophra is removed from the throne by his general Amasis. Amasis becomes Pharaoh and Hophra flees to Babylon. Later In 568-567 BC, Hophra returns with a Babylonian army to retake the throne. This time Hophra is killed after he fails. Not only is the specific Pharaoh destroyed just as God prophesied here but Egypt as a whole is forever changed after her failure to control the Middle East region. Egypt never again regains power or substantial influence over the region. While Babylon never actually succeeded in conquering Egypt, Egypt is pushed back and subdued. Later, Egypt is officially conquered by the next empire, Persian, and then later Greece and then Rome.
Event #3: God will scatter the Egyptians among the nations.
This is one of the most difficult events to place! There is no major happening of obvious widespread dispersion of the Egyptian people. Babylon, Persia, Greece, and Rome did not exile the people on a mass scale as far as history claims.
There is some indication that Nebuchadnezzar entered into Egypt in 568 BC and in 567 BC (with Hophra) but there is strangely very little documentation on this invasion. I believe it is possible that historian Josephus’ 568 BC invasion may have been the same as Hophra’s advance or at least closely tied to it. If Nebuchadnezzar did invade Egypt, it is likely he would have followed the same exile policy that he used in Judah where he would take the skilled Egyptians back to Babylon and disperse them throughout the empire. If so, this may satisfy the details of event #3. However, there just isn’t any historical evidence of any major diaspora by Nebuchadnezzar in Egypt.
I want to note that Jeremiah chapters 43 and 44 do provide a specific prophecy against Egypt that may be helpful here. After Babylon demolishes Jerusalem in 586 BC, the poor are left behind to tend to the land along with Jeremiah under the protection of Gedaliah. A group of these Jews, led by Johanan, decided to flee to Egypt instead of staying in the land subservient to Babylon. Jeremiah, of course, warns Johanan and these Jews not to return to Egypt but to stay as directed by God, but unfortunately, they do not listen. They even force Jeremiah and others to go to Egypt with them! They settled in Tahpanhes. As a result of their sin, both in relying on Egypt and idolatry, Jeremiah prophesied that Nebuchadnezzar would come to the temple in Tahpanhes and will place his “royal pavilion” there. Jeremiah adds in 43:11, “and when he cometh, he shall smite the land of Egypt, and deliver such as are for death to death; and such as are for captivity to captivity; and such as are for the sword to the sword.” and the remnant will die from war, famine, and pestilence.
These chapters in Jeremiah tell us that Nebuchadnezzar must have entered into Egypt at least up to the city of Tahpanhes. It seems that, in so doing, he killed some people and took others captive. This passage is likely describing Nebuchadnezzar’s 586 BC invasion and, therefore may satisfy the details of event #3. While he did not fully conquer Egypt, the Bible is clear that Nebuchadnezzar did reach Tahpanhes (also known as Daphnae) which was located in Eastern Lower Egypt, the first area that Nebuchadnezzar would have come to as he entered into Egypt. Jeremiah 44:1 also includes Migdol, Noph (Memphis), and Pathros (Upper Egypt) in his prophecy as well although only Tahpanhes is specifically mentioned as being inhabited by Nebuchadnezzar.
Either way, while evidence from history says that Babylon never fully conquered Egypt, it does tell us that Babylon did at least restrain the once mighty empire. In his effort, it is very likely that Nebuchadnezzar would have exiled some Egyptians, and Jeremiah 43 and 44 lead credence to that possibility. Overall, event #3 can certainly be explained by Nebuchadnezzar’s attempt at conquering Egypt.
There is another possibility for event #3, however. The specific case of “scattering” isn’t actually directly attributed to Nebuchadnezzar in this passage. It is mentioned along with other prophecies, but Nebuchadnezzar does not specifically cause it according to verses 23 and 26. Is it possible that event #3 actually occurs at a later date?
I actually address this same issue in a post on Ezekiel 30:10-19. Many use that passage to say that Ezekiel “got it wrong” because Nebuchadnezzar is not known to have accomplished some of the circumstances listed in the passage. However, in my post titled, “Ezekiel 30: Nebuchadnezzar and Egypt – Did Ezekiel Get It Wrong?,” I discuss the importance in taking the Bible exactly at it’s word. There is no indication that the prophecies listed are concurrent. Just because the prophecies are listed one after the other does not mean that they happen altogether or even close in time. I can’t help but wonder if we can apply the same logic here. Just because the prophecy of dispersion is included in this passage does not mean that the dispersion happens at the same time or even close to the other events. In fact, a careful read will indicate that there is no evidence that Ezekiel is placing these prophecies as simultaneous.
If the scattering of the Egyptian people doesn’t occur with Nebuchadnezzar, than when does it occur? Egypt was ruled by a serious of empires after Babylon: Persia, Greece, and Rome. None of these empires are particularly associated with dispersion. Actually, Persia, while somewhat cruel to the Egyptians at times, was characterized by returning exiles to their land not dispersing them.
There is another mention of scattering by Ezekiel in his prophecies against Egypt. Ezekiel 29:8-16 speaks to a very specific incident involving the “Tower of Syene” in Egypt. This event will cause the land of Egypt to be desolate and the people to scatter for 40 years before they are returned to their land. This passage is also reiterated in Ezekiel 30:1-9. During my study of these two passages, I found the commentator community very silent on the meaning of the “Tower of Syene” and the historical fulfillment of the details listed. Most “scholars” just attributed the details to Nebuchadnezzar saying that although there is no historical evidence of the great scale of details in these passages, there is no other option to explain the scenario described by Ezekiel. I really didn’t feel satisfied with this explanation and went on mission to understand the passage better. I remained open-minded. In so doing, I came to believe that the events of Ezekiel 29:8-16 and 30:1-9 were actually better understood as an event that is still in the FUTURE. Please see my post, “Ezekiel 29: ‘Tower of Syene’: a Modern Day Prophecy Fulfillment” for all the details as to how I came to my conclusion. If this “scattering” mentioned in verses 23 and 26 is the same event as the scattering of Ezekiel 29:8-16 and Ezekiel 30:1-9, then that would mean that the Egyptian diaspora is maybe still to come.
In conclusion, event #3 could be a historical OR a future fulfillment (or a little of both). As to which side I lean towards: future. But, I do not hold firmly to that! Due to the “scattering” mentioned in the prior passages in Ezekiel, I think this passage is speaking to a future dispersion of the Egyptians that has not occurred yet. That said, I cannot be dogmatic about that. It is certainly possible that this event is properly attributed to Nebuchadnezzar especially because Jeremiah alludes to captivity in Egypt. And since this particular event is squeezed in between to more obvious prophecies about Nebuchadnezzar, it seems entirely possible that it also has to do with Nebuchadnezzar specifically.
Event #4: God will strengthen the king of Babylon who will stretch his sword over the land of Egypt.
This event is much more clear than the last event! The king of Babylon will wield the sword of God in judgment. Babylon, and Nebuchadnezzar, was used to judge Judah and the surrounding nations according to Isaiah, Jeremiah, and Ezekiel (and others). Using a foreign nation to judge His people is a common tactic God employs throughout the Bible. Babylon was not the first nation God utilized and it certainly wasn’t the last. In fact, the antichrist and his 8th and final kingdom will be used as a tool of judgment in the end times.
Here, the passage does indicate that Nebuchadnezzar will engage in conflict with Egypt. The passage never claims that Nebuchadnezzar will “conquer” Egypt. As mentioned above, Nebuchadnezzar failed at fully conquering Egypt, however, Babylon did discredit Egypt’s status in the region. Egypt was unable to save her vassal states (such as Judah) and proved to be a not so helpful ally. She never again regains the power she once had and even today is not the most formidable nation in the Middle East.
After breaking apart the events of this prophecy, we can see that the prophecy does indeed stand as true. Some of the details MAY have future fulfillment, but even those details can also be accredited to historical fulfillment.
Bottom line: God is ALWAYS faithful to His Word. Many workers of Satan are out their trying to discredit God’s Word. Satan himself has done that since he tempted Eve of the fruit in the garden. We can stand strong on the promises that God has made – even those we don’t fully understand.